We Are No Longer Replacing Ourselves | Truthstream Media

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Shrinking Population

We Are No Longer Replacing Ourselves – Jan 204 |

The declining in developed countries has led to a situation where the rate is below the replacement level.

The replacement rate, which is roughly 2.1 live births per woman for most industrialised countries, is not being met in many developed regions. This has significant implications for population growth, as a rate below the replacement level can lead to a declining population over time.

The Total Rate (TFR) of a population is the average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime, and it is obtained by summing the single-year age-specific rates for a given time point. The replacement rate is the TFR at which newborn girls would have an average of exactly 1 daughter over their lifetime, effectively leading to zero population growth through reproduction.

The Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, has highlighted that the replacement rate is 2.1 births per female for most developed countries. However, this value can be higher in undeveloped countries due to higher mortality rates, especially child mortality. The global average for the replacement total rate is around 2.3, but it is important to consider that these values omit the significant factor of mortality rates, which also impact population growth.

Sub-replacement , which is a total rate that leads to each new generation being less populous than the previous one, is a growing concern in many developed countries. Despite this, it's important to note that sub-replacement does not automatically translate into a population decline, as factors such as immigration, population momentum, and life expectancy can influence population growth.

World Total Rates – World Factbook

Total World

In the United Kingdom, for example, the long-term assumption is around 1.59 children per woman, which is below the replacement level. This indicates that the UK's current level of is below replacement level, yet the population is projected to grow for the next thirty years. This is due to the complex relationship between replacement level and zero population growth, which is influenced by factors such as mortality rates and migration.

In summary, the declining in developed countries has led to a situation where the rate is below the replacement level, posing challenges for future population growth. The concept of replacement rate, which is around 2.1 live births per woman for most developed countries, is a key indicator of whether a population is replacing itself. The complex interplay of factors such as mortality rates, migration, and population momentum makes it important to carefully consider the implications of sub-replacement for population growth and demographic trends.

Sources and links

Total fertility rate – CIA

Declining birth rate in Developed Countries: A radical policy re-think is required

1Total fertility rate – Wikipediawikipedia

Sub-replacement fertility – Wikipediawikipedia·3National population projections, fertility assumptions: 2020-based interimons

Replacement level fertility and future population growth – PubMednih

Source: We Are No Longer Replacing Ourselves – YouTube

Source: We Are No Longer Replacing Ourselves – Odysee

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